Position- and Shot-Adjusted Marginal Scoring (Part IV): Free Throw Shooting

So far in this series I’ve looked at inside, mid-range, and 3-pt scoring. In this post,  I will define the rating for foul shooting. The final post of the series will look at the total scoring rating, which is simply the sum of all four parts.

The logic for developing the foul shooting rating is essentially the same as for all the previous ratings. We compare the player’s free throw rate (FTA per 100 possessions) and free throw efficiency to the league averages at his position.

As always, we demonstrate the rating calculation with a specific player. In this case, we’ll use Kevin Martin who basically makes his living at the charity stripe:

Kevin Martin averages 12.2 FTA per 100 possessions at 89.1%. The league averages for SG are 4.41 and 80.1%, respectively. The first term in the rating, therefore, represents Martin’s marginal value for the FTA he is expected to take. The second term represents the marginal value attributed to his additional FTA above the average. The term 1.08*0.44 represents the value that those FTA would bring if they were average possessions. Here, 1.08 is the approximate point value of a possession and 0.44 is the conversion factor to determine how many possessions would have been used by a certain number of FTA. Finally, the third term represents the marginal value of the Martin’s AND1 free throw rate (per 100 possessions). Clearly, Martin generates a tremendous amount of value from his free throws. In fact, as you will see in the next post, his free throw rating alone is enough to propel him into the overall top 5. Of course, if we knew more specifically where on the court Martin draws fouls, the value could be distributed into the other three ratings. But we don’t have those data, so for now, we have to resort to this separate rating for free throws.

Here’s the entire list of players with above average possessions and games started (overall rank (ORK) and position rank (PRK)):

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	POS	PSAMS-FT	FTR	FT%	AND1_RATE
1	1	Kevin Martin	HOU	SG	4.14	12.2	89.1%	0.856
2	1	Kevin Durant	OKC	SF	3.22	10.8	88.0%	0.618
3	2	Carmelo Anthony	DEN	SF	2.81	11.0	81.3%	0.880
4	2	Kobe Bryant	LAL	SG	2.61	10.3	82.0%	0.831
5	1	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	PF	2.51	8.6	90.0%	0.626
6	1	Russell Westbrook	OKC	PG	2.49	10.9	83.4%	0.683
7	3	Dwyane Wade	MIA	SG	2.22	11.0	73.4%	1.138
8	2	Rodney Stuckey	DET	PG	2.18	8.5	85.6%	1.028
9	3	Chauncey Billups	DEN	PG	2.16	8.4	93.0%	0.431
10	2	Kevin Love	MIN	PF	2.13	8.9	84.4%	0.610
11	1	Brook Lopez	NJN	C	2.10	8.1	76.3%	1.034
12	4	Derrick Rose	CHI	PG	2.09	9.1	85.2%	0.766
13	3	Danilo Gallinari	NYK	SF	2.07	8.4	89.4%	0.308
14	4	Manu Ginobili	SAS	SG	2.07	7.9	87.7%	0.656
15	4	LeBron James	MIA	SF	2.06	10.4	74.9%	0.981
16	3	Amare Stoudemire	NYK	PF	2.06	9.5	77.3%	0.997
17	5	Paul Pierce	BOS	SF	1.94	7.8	85.0%	0.786
18	5	Deron Williams	UTA	PG	1.92	8.6	85.5%	0.742
19	6	Ramon Sessions	CLE	PG	1.79	9.7	82.3%	0.506
20	7	Devin Harris	NJN	PG	1.77	9.0	83.6%	0.625
21	2	Andrea Bargnani	TOR	C	1.77	6.8	79.8%	0.830
22	6	Danny Granger	IND	SF	1.74	8.1	85.3%	0.459
23	5	Eric Gordon	LAC	SG	1.72	7.8	82.3%	0.788
24	4	Chris Bosh	MIA	PF	1.59	8.2	80.0%	0.662
25	3	Nene Hilario	DEN	C	1.36	7.9	67.2%	1.068
26	5	Pau Gasol	LAL	PF	1.24	6.8	80.7%	0.741
27	4	Dwight Howard	ORL	C	1.16	15.6	57.4%	0.878
28	6	Tyler Hansbrough	IND	PF	1.10	7.8	76.6%	0.596
29	8	Chris Paul	NOH	PG	1.10	6.7	87.7%	0.470
30	6	DeMar DeRozan	TOR	SG	1.02	6.6	79.4%	0.674
31	7	David West	NOH	PF	0.98	6.7	79.3%	0.624
32	8	LaMarcus Aldridge	POR	PF	0.96	6.9	77.0%	0.668
33	5	DeMarcus Cousins	SAC	C	0.94	8.2	66.0%	0.684
34	6	Tyson Chandler	DAL	C	0.92	7.0	71.2%	0.534
35	9	Blake Griffin	LAC	PF	0.90	10.5	62.3%	1.106
36	10	Zach Randolph	MEM	PF	0.84	7.0	73.7%	0.764
37	7	Wes Matthews	POR	SG	0.78	5.8	85.5%	0.335
38	8	Stephen Jackson	CHA	SG	0.77	6.4	81.3%	0.379
39	9	Richard Hamilton	DET	SG	0.71	6.0	84.9%	0.218
40	7	Roy Hibbert	IND	C	0.70	5.6	71.8%	0.609
41	8	Marc Gasol	MEM	C	0.70	5.4	71.9%	0.639
42	9	D.J. Augustin	CHA	PG	0.69	5.3	91.2%	0.467
43	9	Joakim Noah	CHI	C	0.64	5.9	71.8%	0.472
44	10	Monta Ellis	GSW	SG	0.63	6.4	78.4%	0.441
45	10	Al Jefferson	UTA	C	0.62	4.5	71.8%	0.802
46	7	Andrei Kirilenko	UTA	SF	0.62	6.7	76.0%	0.484
47	11	Randy Foye	LAC	SG	0.57	4.8	91.5%	0.235
48	8	Gerald Wallace	CHA	SF	0.57	7.7	72.6%	0.402
49	11	Brandon Bass	ORL	PF	0.57	6.0	80.0%	0.388
50	12	Paul Millsap	UTA	PF	0.55	6.0	72.5%	0.798
51	13	Andray Blatche	WAS	PF	0.55	6.2	75.7%	0.571
52	12	Brandon Roy	POR	SG	0.54	5.5	84.0%	0.295
53	13	Nick Young	WAS	SG	0.52	5.3	83.3%	0.383
54	10	Andre Miller	POR	PG	0.52	5.8	87.5%	0.272
55	11	John Wall	WAS	PG	0.44	7.4	75.3%	0.467
56	9	Rudy Gay	MEM	SF	0.43	5.5	79.8%	0.441
57	14	Tyreke Evans	SAC	SG	0.42	6.0	74.9%	0.564
58	12	Steve Nash	PHX	PG	0.39	4.8	92.8%	0.289
59	14	Kevin Garnett	BOS	PF	0.39	4.9	85.4%	0.287
60	10	Grant Hill	PHX	SF	0.36	5.0	81.4%	0.426
61	11	Tim Duncan	SAS	C	0.34	5.9	70.3%	0.263
62	11	Marvin Williams	ATL	SF	0.34	4.7	85.3%	0.320
63	13	Stephen Curry	GSW	PG	0.33	4.1	95.1%	0.445
64	14	Brandon Jennings	MIL	PG	0.29	5.8	84.3%	0.246
65	12	Michael Beasley	MIN	SF	0.29	5.4	72.4%	0.718
66	15	Jeff Green	OKC	PF	0.29	4.7	79.8%	0.521
67	15	Jodie Meeks	PHI	SG	0.27	4.1	92.0%	0.204
68	16	Joe Johnson	ATL	SG	0.24	4.8	81.9%	0.361
69	15	Darren Collison	IND	PG	0.24	4.4	88.8%	0.512
70	17	Tony Allen	MEM	SG	0.21	6.0	73.5%	0.423
71	18	Ray Allen	BOS	SG	0.17	3.8	91.7%	0.277
72	12	Andrew Bynum	LAL	C	0.15	6.9	63.2%	0.328
73	16	J.J. Hickson	CLE	PF	0.14	7.9	65.2%	0.503
74	13	Al Horford	ATL	C	0.14	3.4	78.0%	0.380
75	17	Carlos Boozer	CHI	PF	0.13	6.2	67.6%	0.650
76	18	Antawn Jamison	CLE	PF	0.13	6.0	71.2%	0.472
77	19	David Lee	GSW	PF	0.13	4.5	75.8%	0.596
78	20	Josh Smith	ATL	PF	0.10	6.0	71.2%	0.429
79	13	John Salmons	MIL	SF	0.09	4.8	80.5%	0.295
80	19	Kirk Hinrich	WAS	SG	0.07	3.3	90.3%	0.427
81	21	Amir Johnson	TOR	PF	0.06	3.8	78.3%	0.644
82	20	Gerald Henderson	CHA	SG	0.03	5.0	77.3%	0.295
83	14	Luol Deng	CHI	SF	-0.00	5.2	74.4%	0.371
84	16	Tony Parker	SAS	PG	-0.00	5.7	74.6%	0.554
85	22	Elton Brand	PHI	PF	-0.01	4.8	76.4%	0.359
86	21	Ben Gordon	DET	SG	-0.01	3.8	87.3%	0.252
87	23	Luis Scola	HOU	PF	-0.03	5.8	72.6%	0.273
88	24	Ersan Ilyasova	MIL	PF	-0.08	3.5	89.8%	0.212
89	14	Kwame Brown	CHA	C	-0.10	6.7	54.3%	0.706
90	15	Samuel Dalembert	SAC	C	-0.14	3.6	70.1%	0.320
91	17	Raymond Felton	NYK	PG	-0.14	4.1	88.8%	0.245
92	18	Beno Udrih	SAC	PG	-0.15	3.8	87.4%	0.409
93	15	Andre Iguodala	PHI	SF	-0.23	6.2	67.9%	0.280
94	22	Anthony Morrow	NJN	SG	-0.26	2.9	92.9%	0.205
95	23	Arron Afflalo	DEN	SG	-0.28	3.3	84.8%	0.263
96	16	Greg Monroe	DET	C	-0.29	5.3	59.5%	0.343
97	19	Ty Lawson	DEN	PG	-0.31	4.8	73.9%	0.520
98	16	Nicolas Batum	POR	SF	-0.34	3.2	82.7%	0.302
99	25	Serge Ibaka	OKC	PF	-0.41	4.2	74.0%	0.241
100	17	Emeka Okafor	NOH	C	-0.44	5.6	52.3%	0.550
101	26	Luc Mbah a Moute	MIL	PF	-0.46	4.6	69.5%	0.287
102	27	Lamar Odom	LAL	PF	-0.46	4.4	62.6%	0.635
103	18	JaVale McGee	WAS	C	-0.47	5.1	55.3%	0.394
104	17	Richard Jefferson	SAS	SF	-0.49	3.9	74.5%	0.234
105	18	Dorell Wright	GSW	SF	-0.50	3.4	78.6%	0.208
106	19	Mike Dunleavy	IND	SF	-0.50	3.6	79.2%	0.149
107	19	Chuck Hayes	HOU	C	-0.51	3.3	64.2%	0.200
108	20	Sam Young	MEM	SF	-0.51	3.4	73.8%	0.367
109	24	Marco Belinelli	NOH	SG	-0.51	3.2	80.5%	0.192
110	20	Kyle Lowry	HOU	PG	-0.51	4.7	75.1%	0.279
111	21	Jrue Holiday	PHI	PG	-0.51	3.3	80.6%	0.492
112	21	Wilson Chandler	NYK	SF	-0.52	3.0	79.6%	0.292
113	22	Shawn Marion	DAL	SF	-0.52	3.6	76.1%	0.211
114	28	Josh McRoberts	IND	PF	-0.53	3.4	73.1%	0.348
115	23	Travis Outlaw	NJN	SF	-0.54	3.6	75.2%	0.231
116	20	Zydrunas Ilgauskas	MIA	C	-0.54	2.0	76.7%	0.139
117	22	Baron Davis	LAC	PG	-0.56	3.8	76.6%	0.409
118	24	Francisco Garcia	SAC	SF	-0.58	2.6	85.7%	0.219
119	25	Vince Carter	PHX	SG	-0.61	3.2	69.8%	0.446
120	29	Kris Humphries	NJN	PF	-0.63	4.7	64.0%	0.346
121	26	Raja Bell	UTA	SG	-0.63	2.6	91.1%	0.025
122	23	Jameer Nelson	ORL	PG	-0.64	3.5	82.8%	0.210
123	24	Luke Ridnour	MIN	PG	-0.66	3.0	89.1%	0.185
124	27	Sonny Weems	TOR	SG	-0.68	3.2	76.7%	0.144
125	25	Trevor Ariza	NOH	SF	-0.71	3.8	67.6%	0.312
126	28	Tracy McGrady	DET	SG	-0.72	4.0	68.0%	0.230
127	25	Mike Conley	MEM	PG	-0.78	4.4	73.5%	0.166
128	26	Tayshaun Prince	DET	SF	-0.79	3.3	68.6%	0.282
129	21	Marcus Camby	POR	C	-0.80	2.3	57.8%	0.219
130	29	Landry Fields	NYK	SG	-0.81	2.7	75.2%	0.201
131	30	DeJuan Blair	SAS	PF	-0.83	3.7	62.1%	0.389
132	31	Jason Thompson	SAC	PF	-0.86	5.5	58.4%	0.292
133	22	Darko Milicic	MIN	C	-0.86	3.1	52.8%	0.237
134	26	Eric Bledsoe	LAC	PG	-0.88	3.4	73.1%	0.343
135	32	Channing Frye	PHX	PF	-0.88	2.0	81.4%	0.204
136	30	Carlos Delfino	MIL	SG	-0.93	2.5	79.7%	0.034
137	23	Spencer Hawes	PHI	C	-0.94	2.5	51.9%	0.215
138	31	Anthony Parker	CLE	SG	-0.95	2.1	76.2%	0.224
139	27	Jose Calderon	TOR	PG	-0.99	2.4	89.8%	0.097
140	27	Hedo Turkoglu	ORL	SF	-1.03	3.1	65.4%	0.200
141	28	Omri Casspi	SAC	SF	-1.08	2.7	66.7%	0.176
142	32	DeShawn Stevenson	DAL	SG	-1.13	1.8	75.0%	0.137
143	29	Ron Artest	LAL	SF	-1.14	2.9	65.9%	0.111
144	33	Jason Richardson	ORL	SG	-1.15	2.3	71.3%	0.085
145	34	Thabo Sefolosha	OKC	SG	-1.16	1.9	73.0%	0.127
146	33	Boris Diaw	CHA	PF	-1.17	2.2	65.5%	0.193
147	35	Wesley Johnson	MIN	SG	-1.19	2.1	68.6%	0.143
148	30	Ryan Gomes	LAC	SF	-1.23	2.0	70.7%	0.075
149	28	Derek Fisher	LAL	PG	-1.23	2.2	79.6%	0.163
150	29	Mario Chalmers	MIA	PG	-1.25	2.0	86.9%	0.034
151	24	DeAndre Jordan	LAC	C	-1.29	5.3	43.8%	0.179
152	25	Andrew Bogut	MIL	C	-1.32	4.9	41.5%	0.237
153	34	Kenyon Martin	DEN	PF	-1.32	2.7	54.5%	0.246
154	31	Shane Battier	HOU	SF	-1.38	2.0	63.0%	0.084
155	26	Andris Biedrins	GSW	C	-1.42	1.1	30.0%	0.036
156	35	Kurt Thomas	CHI	PF	-1.47	1.3	59.3%	0.141
157	30	Jason Kidd	DAL	PG	-1.47	1.5	86.7%	0.039
158	36	Keith Bogans	CHI	SG	-1.59	1.1	63.3%	0.000
159	27	Ben Wallace	DET	C	-1.63	2.6	33.3%	0.000
160	31	Mike Bibby	ATL	PG	-1.76	1.4	61.9%	0.130
161	32	Rajon Rondo	BOS	PG	-1.78	2.7	55.1%	0.105

Here is the list of players with above average possessions but below average games started:

ORK	PRK	NAME	TEAM	POS	PSAMS-FT	FTR	FT%	AND1_RATE
1	1	Corey Maggette	MIL	SF	3.21	11.5	83.4%	0.873
2	1	Louis Williams	PHI	PG	1.92	10.1	81.8%	0.541
3	1	James Harden	OKC	SG	1.52	7.8	83.7%	0.465
4	1	Hakim Warrick	PHX	PF	1.13	10.2	70.7%	0.512
5	1	Zaza Pachulia	ATL	C	1.10	7.4	74.1%	0.392
6	2	Jamal Crawford	ATL	SG	0.87	5.7	87.7%	0.371
7	2	George Hill	SAS	PG	0.78	6.0	85.8%	0.561
8	3	Jerryd Bayless	TOR	PG	0.72	6.9	80.7%	0.512
9	4	Jarrett Jack	NOH	PG	0.67	6.3	84.1%	0.444
10	2	Carl Landry	SAC	PF	0.61	7.0	68.6%	0.883
11	2	Ryan Hollins	CLE	C	0.41	6.7	65.3%	0.488
12	3	C.J. Miles	UTA	SG	0.39	4.8	81.7%	0.520
13	5	Will Bynum	DET	PG	0.38	5.2	85.5%	0.477
14	3	Marcin Gortat	PHX	C	0.34	5.3	71.3%	0.353
15	4	J.J. Redick	ORL	SG	0.30	4.2	91.5%	0.246
16	6	Shaun Livingston	CHA	PG	0.26	4.9	85.0%	0.518
17	7	Jose Barea	DAL	PG	0.13	4.3	83.1%	0.671
18	5	Rudy Fernandez	POR	SG	0.11	4.0	86.8%	0.297
19	6	Jason Terry	DAL	SG	0.11	4.1	86.5%	0.286
20	7	Daniel Gibson	CLE	SG	0.06	4.3	83.1%	0.306
21	3	Anthony Tolliver	MIN	PF	0.06	4.3	78.4%	0.482
22	4	Glen Davis	BOS	PF	0.04	5.9	72.1%	0.332
23	8	Leandro Barbosa	TOR	SG	0.02	4.5	77.2%	0.443
24	2	Martell Webster	MIN	SF	0.02	5.3	75.9%	0.277
25	9	J.R. Smith	DEN	SG	-0.04	5.2	73.3%	0.381
26	3	Chase Budinger	HOU	SF	-0.05	3.7	84.0%	0.382
27	10	Shannon Brown	LAL	SG	-0.11	3.0	91.0%	0.341
28	5	Darrell Arthur	MEM	PF	-0.11	3.9	80.7%	0.359
29	11	Corey Brewer	MIN	SG	-0.14	5.8	68.8%	0.399
30	6	Ryan Anderson	ORL	PF	-0.15	4.0	80.4%	0.298
31	4	Jared Dudley	PHX	SF	-0.18	4.9	72.4%	0.366
32	5	Al-Farouq Aminu	LAC	SF	-0.29	3.9	75.9%	0.392
33	12	Evan Turner	PHI	SG	-0.35	3.4	79.8%	0.326
34	13	Reggie Williams	GSW	SG	-0.38	3.8	72.5%	0.442
35	4	Ronny Turiaf	NYK	C	-0.45	4.0	58.9%	0.357
36	5	Nick Collison	OKC	C	-0.46	2.1	70.7%	0.321
37	14	Courtney Lee	HOU	SG	-0.49	3.4	78.8%	0.212
38	15	Sasha Vujacic	NJN	SG	-0.50	3.1	85.7%	0.101
39	16	Paul George	IND	SG	-0.50	3.6	73.6%	0.319
40	7	Thaddeus Young	PHI	PF	-0.51	3.8	66.9%	0.500
41	6	Austin Daye	DET	SF	-0.53	3.8	74.5%	0.222
42	17	O.J. Mayo	MEM	SG	-0.54	3.5	78.6%	0.140
43	18	Gary Neal	SAS	SG	-0.54	2.8	77.5%	0.403
44	8	Jordan Hill	HOU	PF	-0.57	3.3	65.3%	0.600
45	9	Charlie Villanueva	DET	PF	-0.57	3.5	75.5%	0.193
46	7	Kyle Korver	CHI	SF	-0.60	2.5	92.1%	0.066
47	8	Gordon Hayward	UTA	SF	-0.64	3.9	69.7%	0.266
48	19	Willie Green	NOH	SG	-0.64	3.0	75.8%	0.293
49	10	Al Harrington	DEN	PF	-0.67	3.2	70.5%	0.360
50	6	Joel Anthony	MIA	C	-0.68	2.6	65.7%	0.111
51	9	James Jones	MIA	SF	-0.74	2.4	87.0%	0.103
52	11	Taj Gibson	CHI	PF	-0.75	4.5	66.7%	0.158
53	20	Brandon Rush	IND	SG	-0.86	3.0	75.2%	0.088
54	8	Jordan Farmar	NJN	PG	-0.86	2.8	83.9%	0.211
55	9	Keyon Dooling	MIL	PG	-0.93	2.7	84.3%	0.154
56	21	Ronnie Brewer	CHI	SG	-0.94	3.7	63.9%	0.214
57	22	Wayne Ellington	MIN	SG	-0.96	2.0	77.1%	0.211
58	10	Donte Greene	SAC	SF	-1.10	2.7	62.7%	0.271
59	12	Vladimir Radmanovic	GSW	PF	-1.10	1.4	87.5%	0.088
60	13	Antonio McDyess	SAS	PF	-1.11	2.8	67.6%	0.077
61	10	Toney Douglas	NYK	PG	-1.17	2.6	78.4%	0.103
62	14	Ed Davis	TOR	PF	-1.27	3.8	51.7%	0.326
63	15	Matt Bonner	SAS	PF	-1.28	1.5	72.5%	0.109
64	11	Eric Maynor	OKC	PG	-1.35	2.5	71.4%	0.135
65	12	Earl Watson	UTA	PG	-1.50	2.7	67.9%	0.035
66	13	Steve Blake	LAL	PG	-1.72	1.0	85.7%	0.000
67	7	Brendan Haywood	DAL	C	-1.91	6.7	33.1%	0.319