I started tracking number of games started, so now I can rather easily assign ranks to starter and non-starters, which I think is important to distinguish (at least, until I begin to incorporate strength of opponent and teammates into ezPM — can you say summer project?)
So, with this post, I am going to simply give the ranks of each Warriors starter and reserve in each component of ezPM with respect to other starters and reserves in the league. For simplicity, my definition of “starter” is any player who has started an above average number of games. Right now, the threshold for that designation is at 18 GS. Any player with less than 18 GS is considered a “reserve”. If someone has a better definition in mind (that is practical), be sure to say so in the comments section. One other idea I have is to take the ratio of GS to GP (games played), but that still would require making some rather arbitrary cutoff. Ok, just to emphasize, the starters are ranked with respect to other starters, and the reserves are ranked with respect to other reserves (with > 500 possessions played).
Starters (162 Players Qualified)
ezPM100
RANK |
NAME |
POSITION |
POSSESSIONS |
ezPM100 |
68 |
Stephen Curry |
1.5 |
3126 |
1.14 |
74 |
Monta Ellis |
1.51 |
4447 |
0.69 |
80 |
Dorell Wright |
2.5 |
4260 |
0.49 |
125 |
Andris Biedrins |
5 |
2312 |
-1.11 |
137 |
David Lee |
4.5 |
3272 |
-1.80 |
O100
RANK |
NAME |
O100 |
15 |
Stephen Curry |
2.79 |
46 |
Monta Ellis |
1.01 |
87 |
Dorell Wright |
-0.04 |
117 |
David Lee |
-0.86 |
118 |
Andris Biedrins |
-0.89 |
D100
RANK |
NAME |
D100 |
63 |
Dorell Wright |
0.85 |
79 |
Monta Ellis |
0.53 |
109 |
David Lee |
-0.18 |
131 |
Andris Biedrins |
-1.04 |
138 |
Stephen Curry |
-1.38 |
REB100
RANK |
NAME |
REB100 |
35 |
Andris Biedrins |
0.81 |
99 |
Stephen Curry |
-0.27 |
106 |
Dorell Wright |
-0.32 |
133 |
David Lee |
-0.76 |
142 |
Monta Ellis |
-0.85 |
Reserves > 500 Possessions (180 Players Qualified)
ezpm 100
RANK |
NAME |
POSITION |
POSSESSIONS |
ezPM100 |
44 |
Reggie Williams |
2.49 |
2285 |
0.56 |
99 |
Louis Amundson |
4.51 |
666 |
-2.07 |
123 |
Acie Law |
1.49 |
665 |
-2.59 |
130 |
Vladimir Radmanovic |
4 |
1628 |
-2.91 |
136 |
Ekpe Udoh |
4.52 |
802 |
-3.15 |
146 |
Dan Gadzuric |
5.01 |
574 |
-3.62 |
O100
RANK |
NAME |
O100 |
5 |
Reggie Williams |
1.96 |
38 |
Acie Law |
-0.06 |
61 |
Vladimir Radmanovic |
-0.62 |
123 |
Ekpe Udoh |
-1.84 |
178 |
Louis Amundson |
-4.94 |
179 |
Dan Gadzuric |
-5.82 |
D100
RANK |
NAME |
D100 |
9 |
Louis Amundson |
2.84 |
13 |
Ekpe Udoh |
2.61 |
100 |
Dan Gadzuric |
-0.13 |
136 |
Reggie Williams |
-1.03 |
143 |
Vladimir Radmanovic |
-1.28 |
151 |
Acie Law |
-1.57 |
REB100
RANK |
NAME |
REB100 |
6 |
Dan Gadzuric |
2.33 |
72 |
Louis Amundson |
0.02 |
99 |
Reggie Williams |
-0.37 |
141 |
Acie Law |
-0.97 |
143 |
Vladimir Radmanovic |
-1.01 |
180 |
Ekpe Udoh |
-3.92 |
By overall EZPM the Warriors are a bit better than average on the perimeter and near the bottom on the interior. Counterpart PER says the same thing.
By Adjusted +/- Lee is not the biggest problem but he isn’t the answer either.
Based on Adjusted +/- I’d say the team should move one of Ellis or Biedrins or both, perhaps in the same trade. EZPM doesn’t see them as a or the problem. Which to give more weight? A big warning bell on either along with a sub .500 record is enough for me to be willing to make a change but I don’t follow the team closely.
Curry at PG. Wright at one wing, Lee at center… I’d start there. Adjusted +/- doesn’t like Williams as much as EZPM but probably plug him in at the other wing for now. Udoh at PF? Give him more run and check out the results and progress. Figure out what you want / need the bench to do and get it done with existing players (perhaps with firmer required concentration on using their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses) or via trades. Ideally a sub should help on at least one skill or not hurt much overall. Maybe Law and / or Admundson could stay in their roles but if you think you can do better I’d change them or anyone else on the bench out.
Lee wouldn’t be such a big problem, if his contract weren’t so big and untradable at this point. Unfortunately, it looks like we will have to build around him, but not in a good way.
Radmanovic shows up in a lot of the best team +/- triplets and quads. Often with Lee. Adjusted +/- likes him better than EZPM.
I probably said something similar before and I know if it is a down the line possible feature but to be specific if you are tracking number of games started and labeling players as overall on average starters and non-starters you could conceivably run EZPM for with 4 or more starters vs 3 or less and against the same 2 possibilities. A four quadrant split of EZPM like that might help decide who should play with and against more starters or less or both or neither really. You don’t get caught up in analyzing one exact lineup, you consider overall trends.
Good idea. What would be really great, but probably never happen unless I get paid to do it, is to develop a query language that would allow anyone to take a full pbp data set and ask something like that with a few simple commands.
I hear you. The NBA is a multiple billion dollar business. They should pay for quality tools & research for improvement of the core operation.
And if / when they have it, they need to apply it to game action, player usage, pay & movement, etc., probably more fully than it is typically today.